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Last updated: 09/04/2024

Mastering Baseball Betting: Tips and Strategies

How To Bet On Baseball

Baseball is quickly becoming an in-demand sportsbook category worldwide. With thrilling home runs, talented pitchers, and action-packed leagues, it’s no surprise that this American export is impressing bettors in the UK and beyond. However, it’s tough to make an accurate wager if you don’t know the ins and outs of the game.

Calling rookies, pros, and everyone in between! Today, we’re looking at how to bet on baseball games and truly score. Join us as we look at everything you should know before you place your first baseball wager. Let’s get started.

Understanding Baseball Betting Basics

If you want to learn how to bet on baseball, the first step is to get familiar with the basics: the odds, how to bet, and the most popular types of baseball bets. Find out how to navigate each below.

How Do Baseball Odds Work?

Baseball games usually use moneyline odds, which show the strength of the two teams and how much you can win or lose if you make a €100 wager. These are also known as American odds, and you’ll find them on US-based sports. 

Moneyline odds use + and – symbols to show which team is the favourite and which is the underdog. For example, a team with a +150 shows you’d win €150 on a €100 stake, whereas -150 odds show you’d need to wager €150 to make €100.

How To Bet On Baseball Games

Once you understand the odds, it’s time to learn how to bet on baseball online. Most sportsbooks and betting sites not on GamStop offer this sport, so it’s easy to get started. 

  1. Find a legitimate betting site
  2. Check baseball is available on the sportsbook
  3. Create an account
  4. Verify your account and make a deposit
  5. Navigate to the baseball section of the sportsbook
  6. Choose your market and stake
  7. Review your bet and confirm it

Don’t forget to add any available welcome bonuses and promotions to your account. These can boost your first few wagers!

Popular Types of Baseball Bets

There are bets that are more popular than others in all sports. So, before you get immersed in the world of baseball betting, make sure you know some common wagers.

Moneyline Betting

Named after the style of odds, moneyline bets are the most simple of the lot. Here, you simply wager on which team will win the game. Negative (-) moneyline odds indicate the favourite, and positive odds (+) show the underdog.

Totals Betting 

Totals betting (also known as Over/Under bets) focuses on whether the total runs scored in a baseball match will be over or under a specific number set by the bookies. So, this isn’t about the game’s final score, but if the runs fall outside of set criteria.

Run Line Betting

Run line betting is similar to point spread betting. The bookies set a run line (usually 1.5 runs), and bettors must bet on the favourite or underdog to beat the line or fall under it. For example, a team would need 2 runs to beat a 1.5-run line.

Futures Betting

Future betting is all about predicting future events. For example, which player will win the MVP award or which team will win the World Series. These wagers must be placed before the season starts and typically have longer odds.

Parlay Betting

Parlay betting involves combining multiple bets into one big wager. Perfect if you want to bet on totals, moneylines, and run lines. This gives the chance for a higher payout, but it comes with more risk. Every bet in the parlay must be correct for you to access your winnings.

Prop Bets

Prop/Proposition bets are bets based on specific occurrences or events within a baseball game. For example, the number of home runs or individual player performances. Prop bets are a great way to add extra intrigue to a game beyond the final score.

Analysing Team Performance and Statistics

As with any sports betting, baseball betting requires in-depth research and analysis to ensure your bets are risk-free. Here are some of the most important performance and statistics to look at before you confirm your wager:

1. Recent Performance

Looking at a team’s recent performances is a great way to gauge how well their current lineups and tactics are working. 

A string of losses may signal that the team isn’t working well together and likely won’t perform well if no changes have been made. On the other hand, a team with many recent wins will have more confidence and a strong game strategy.

2. Starting Pitchers

Starting pitchers are crucial to baseball games and can directly affect the overall outcome. Look at who’s lined up for the match and examine their recent performance, pitching style, and weaknesses. 

Understanding the starting pitcher matchup can give you key insights into how the game will unfold. Don’t overlook this factor!

3. Player Injuries

An injured player can leave the team with a weakness. Likewise, players returning from a significant injury won’t perform as well as usual.

4. Home Advantage

Whether it’s due to the extra support or familiarity, some baseball teams perform better at their home stadium. Alongside examining the team’s strengths, look at where they’re playing and whether they play better at home or away.

5. Team Rivalries

Long-standing team rivalries can make for more intense games where the outcome is less predictable than usual. So, if a heated match is coming up, take extra care to look at past outcomes and trends to gauge which way the game will go.

6. Weather Conditions

Weather conditions can also affect baseball scores, as playing in extreme heat or cold conditions is more challenging. You should also look out for humidity, rain, and visibility. 

7. Recent Trades

Recent player trades can strengthen teams, but they can also initially weaken their play due to a lack of cohesion between the new and experienced players. Consider how long the traded players have been in their new team and how well they’ve settled in before betting.

Identifying Key Players and Matchups

To know how to bet on baseball, you need to know who the key players are and which matchups matter the most. 

In baseball, key players are players who stand out due to their exceptional skills and impact on the game. For example, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. 

Matchups refer to a specific match between two players within the game. For example, two opposing pitchers, fielders and baserunners, and pitchers and batters. 

You can identify key players and matchups by:

  • Assessing the starting pitchers for each team
  • Reading recent hitter’s statistics (e.g. home run rate, on-base percentages, batting average, and slugging percentages)
  • Looking for defensive matchups
  • Examining bullpen strength 

Managing Your Bankroll and Betting Wisely

When learning how to bet on baseball online, you should also take time to ensure you’re managing your bankroll and making wise betting decisions. This way, you’ll not only protect your finances, but yourself, too!

What Is A Betting Bankroll?

In sports betting, your bankroll is the money you set aside for betting. This budget should not affect your finances, and you must be okay with potentially losing it. So, to create a bankroll, you’ll need to consider your income and expenses to see how much disposable income you have.

How Do You Manage A Baseball Betting Bankroll?

Once you’ve decided on a bankroll amount, you should keep managing it to ensure it stays healthy. This isn’t a baseball-only technique. You should manage your bankroll for football betting, non-GamStop golf betting, NFL betting, and any other sport you can think of.

Here are some bankroll management suggestions from our in-house experts:

  • Keep a record of your spending – Though it might seem tedious, keeping track of your bankroll and spending will help you see whether your strategy is working. You can also make adjustments in response to this information, bettering your chances for future wagers. 
  • Set limits and breaks – Betting limits and breaks allow you to cool off and stop spending after you spend a certain percentage of your bankroll. This can stop you from impulse betting or making uninformed wagers.
  • Use the unit system – The unit system is popular with experienced bettors. This breaks your bankroll down into “units” that are 1-3% of the overall bankroll. Using units can help you plan your bets better and help to curb overspending.
  • Practise discipline – Bankroll discipline is critical to a healthy betting experience. Remaining disciplined means sticking to your chosen wager sizes, making consistent bets, and avoiding emotional betting.

Tips For Responsible Betting

A big part of a managed bankroll is betting wisely. If you’re new to baseball betting, you might not be familiar with responsible betting techniques. These are designed to protect you from big losses and help avoid problem gambling behaviours.

For example, you should only ever bet using disposable income that you can afford to lose. Don’t use any funds destined for rent, savings, or bills. 

You should also be selective with your wagers. Focus on quality bets rather than placing lots in a short span of time. Make sure each bet has valid research and analysis to support your predictions.

Finally, you should seek help from charities and betting organisations if your gambling behaviours are becoming impulsive or negatively impacting your life. These organisations are there for you 24/7 and provide anonymous, non-judgmental advice to help you navigate any betting-related problems.

Utilising Live Betting and In-Game Strategies

Alongside learning how to bet on baseball matched with traditional bets, you may also want to experiment with live betting.

Live (or in-play) betting gives you a chance to wager on dynamic odds during the game. This can provide a more immersive experience and allow you to test your skills and access higher payouts. 

But before you start live betting, know the most popular live betting strategies. Here are some areas you can focus on:

  • Player performance – Players change their performance throughout a game, and you can use this to inform your in-play wagers. For example, struggling pitchers or hot hitters can help you wager on strikeouts or total hits.
  • Pitching changes – Pitching changes create great live betting opportunities. If a weaker reliever replaces a dominant starting pitcher, you can bet on the opposing team to have a higher likelihood of a score.
  • Scoring trends and run totals – With live betting, you can assess the game’s pace and look for scoring trends. These insights allow you to place accurate over/under run totals.

Managing Risk When Live Betting

No matter what type of bets you place, you should always be managing your risk. Like traditional betting, live betting requires good bankroll management, discipline, limits, and careful research. 

However, live betting also comes with a ‘cash-out’ feature. With this, punters can settle their bets before the game ends. So, you can pull out your stake while it’s in profit or before it drops too low to minimise losses. 

Staying Up-to-Date with News and Trends

To become an accurate baseball bettor, you need to keep your eye on the latest news and trends. You can’t just research once and be done with it. For winning wagers, you need to continually watch the baseball news. 

There are plenty of ways to find cutting-edge news. Here are our experts’ favourite outlets:

  • Baseball websites – Sports websites and baseball websites work with journalists to provide the latest baseball news. Popular options include Bleacher Report, the MLB official website, and ESPN.
  • Social media accounts – Sports social media accounts are the way forward if you’d prefer to see the news in your feed. You can follow the big teams and sports journalists on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter.
  • Mobile apps -Independent sports apps could be for you if you want your baseball news on your phone but not via social media. 
  • Radio and podcast shows – Want the news without reading? Not a problem. There are lots of radio and podcast shows that provide baseball highlights, interviews, and game analysis. Locked On MLB and Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney are popular picks for podcast fans.
  • Newspapers and magazines – Newspapers and magazines let you step back from the digital world, perfect for those who don’t want to look at a screen. Sports-focused publications like Sports Illustrated provide extensive baseball coverage.  

Experiment with different options to find an outlet that works for you. It’s a good idea to rely on a few different sources to get an unbiased perspective and as much information as possible.

Avoiding Common Betting Mistakes

To keep your bets on track, you need to research well and understand the odds. Knowing common errors also stands you in good stead for a win. 

We’ve gathered the top three baseball betting mistakes to help you hone your craft.

1. Overvaluing Favourites

When there’s hype around a particular team, it’s easy to follow the buzz. But being a favourite doesn’t guarantee a win. Rather than blindly betting on favourites, conduct your own research and analyse the stats.

2. Chasing Losses

Chasing losses happens when punters try to regain losses by making significant or impulsive bets. These uninformed bets can lead to even greater losses and potential financial harm.

After a string of losses, your best bet is to maintain a consistent stake size or to take a break from betting. 

3. Neglecting Your Bankroll

Your bankroll is the backbone of your bets. So, failing to manage it properly can affect the success rate of your wagers. 

Top bankroll mistakes bettors make include:

  • Not setting a budget
  • Not adjusting the budget to reflect wins and losses
  • Making significant bets/Spending the bankroll all at once
  • Not recording their spending

Maximising Your Profits with Advanced Techniques

Finally, consider these advanced strategies and techniques before you get out there and place a successful baseball bet. These are best experimented with after you’ve tried a few simple wagers.

  • Advanced statistical analysis – Once you’re comfortable with factors that affect baseball odds, you can delve into in-depth analysis. This includes fielding-independent pitching (FIP), defensive efficiency rating (DER), earned run average (ERA), and batting average.
  • Arbitrage opportunities – Arbitrage betting is all about exploiting discrepancies in odds from different bookies and non-UK betting sites. This strategy takes some learning but can be beneficial once you understand the basics.
  • Line movement analysis – Watching line movements and betting trends can show you valuable odds opportunities. Any sharp moves or market inefficiencies indicate potential betting value or mispriced odds.
  • Pitcher and batter matchups – Pitcher-batter matchups can be favourable or unfavourable and thus will affect the game’s score. Investigate past matchups to see which pairings have big effects on the game.
  • Wind analysis – Alongside looking at the weather conditions, examine the wind strength and direction. This can impact the players’ pitching and hitting abilities.

How To Bet On Baseball – The Bottom Line

Whether you’re gearing up to place your first wager or a seasoned pro, we hope this guide has refreshed your betting knowledge. Save this page to make sure you have an expert guide on hand for the next World Series!
Stay up-to-date with the latest betting news on the Non-GamStop Betting blog.

Meet Our Team Of Gambling Specialists

Hello! I’m David Goldblatt, the lead author at BettingNonGamStop.com. I’m an experienced sports journalist who transitioned into making online gambling content in the mid-2010s. It’s something that fascinates me and I’ve always loved the way sports betting can make any event more exciting!

When I’m not researching the latest non-GamStop bookies, I’ll be playing football in the park or watching the local cricket club with my mates. I’m a massive advocate for responsible gambling, so feel free to message me if you need help. Other than that, I hope you enjoy my stuff and can find some trustworthy betting sites to join!